Pinterest Stock Forecast 2025

Like many social media platforms, Pinterest (NYSE: PINS) saw engagement surge in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic forcing people to stay home. As a result, Pinterest stock delivered stellar gains of over 250% for investors last year.

At the same time, Pinterest is relatively differentiated from other social media platforms, since Pinterest is predominantly a visual platform where users can explore creative interests. The company has been largely insulated from the kind of privacy scandals that plague other services like industry leader Facebook (NASDAQ: FB).

Total monthly active users (MAUs) surged by 37% throughout 2020, climbing to 459 million by the end of the year.

QuarterMAUsYOY Growth
Q4’19335 million26%
Q1’20367 million26%
Q2’20416 million39%
Q3’20442 million37%
Q4’20459 million37%
Data source: Pinterest.

Shares now trade in the ballpark of $79, or 25.4 times sales as investors price in ambitious growth expectations for the business going forward. Wall Street is also bullish, with an average price target among analysts of $163.77, ranging from a high valuation estimate of $220 to a low of $74.

Pinterest (NYSE:PINS)
Price: $58.9 (as of close Jul 30, 2021)
Market Cap: 37,860,213,200

Pinterest Stock Forecast 2021

The momentum Pinterest built in 2020 has carried into 2021, with MAUs jumping by 30% in the first quarter to 478 million. That heightened engagement drove a 78% increase in revenue to $485 million, while net losses are shrinking as Pinterest marches towards profitability.

Pinterest stopped providing full-year forecasts due to ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties related to the pandemic, shifting to a practice of offering quarterly guidance instead as market conditions evolve. The company expects revenue in the second quarter to jump by 105%, with worldwide MAUs growing in the mid-teens while MAUs in the core U.S. market will remain flat.

The company has laid out its strategic priorities for the year, which primarily revolve around content. Pinterest plans to refine the user (“Pinner”) experience and focus on delivering greater results for advertisers, al while expanding the foundation for e-commerce and shopping initiatives. 

Pinterest Stock Forecast 2025

Analysts are forecasting steady top-line growth in the years ahead, albeit with some natural deceleration as the revenue base grows. Based on Wall Street’s models, Pinterest could enjoy a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 23% through 2025.

Here are the current consensus estimates for Pinterest revenue.

YearRevenueYOY Growth
2021$2.58 billion53%
2022$3.45 billion34%
2023$4.75 billion37%
2024$5.94 billion25%
2025$7.3 billion23%
Data source: S&P Global Market Intelligence.

In terms of adjusted earnings per share (EPS), here is what Wall Street is currently looking for.

YearAdjusted EPSYOY Growth
Data source: S&P Global Market Intelligence.

While Pinterest’s MAU base is already sizable, the platform still pales in comparison to some of the largest social media sites. That suggests plenty of opportunities ahead if the company can achieve comparable scale.

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Pinterest Stock Forecast 2030

Looking at the rest of the decade, analysts are modeling for revenue to reach $16.59 billion in 2030. Here’s a breakdown of each year’s revenue, according to Wall Street. Keep in mind that long-term forecasts are vulnerable to greater uncertainty.

YearRevenueYOY Growth
2026$8.97 billion23%
2027$10.65 billion19%
2028$12.56 billion18%
2029$14.53 billion16%
2030$16.59 billion14%
Data source: S&P Global Market Intelligence.

Profitability is also expected to skyrocket on an adjusted basis.

YearAdjusted EPSYOY Growth
Data source: S&P Global Market Intelligence.

Pinterest Bull Case

In no uncertain terms, Pinterest’s greatest opportunity to grow the business in the future lies in strengthening the monetization of users. Specifically, the majority of MAUs are located outside of the United States, where Pinterest’s average revenue per user (ARPU) remains relatively weak. 

Geographical SegmentMAUs (Q1’21)ARPU (Q1’21)
United States98 million$3.99
International380 million$0.26
Global478 million$1.04
Data source: Pinterest.

It is encouraging that Pinterest has been making meaningful progress in bolstering international monetization—ARPU has doubled over the past year—but there is still much more work to be done to fully capitalize on the hundreds of millions of MAUs that reside abroad. 

Of course, Pinterest will also be growing its MAU base. The combination of a growing MAU base and higher ARPU can be very powerful if the company can execute well, translating into sustainable revenue growth.

The e-commerce and shopping strategies remain in the early innings, with Pinterest starting to gain traction among users and advertisers alike. Approximately 20% of revenue in the first quarter was derived from advertisers trying to expand sales directly.

Due to the visual nature of the platform, Pinterest is uniquely suited to deliver compelling shopping experiences.

Pinterest Bear Case

Competition in the social media sector often comes from Facebook, which has a long history of replicating any innovative new feature a smaller rival develops and then deploying that feature to its massive user base of 3.45 billion MAUs. The tech juggernaut isn’t always successful in these duplicative efforts, but not for a lack of trying.

Fortunately for Pinterest, Facebook has already attempted—and failed—to copy Pinterest’s value proposition. Facebook’s New Product Experimentation (NPE) division released a Pinterest clone called Hobbi in early 2020, only to shut down the app a few months later after it failed to gain traction.

Still, Facebook has deep pockets and has the resources to compete in the long-term, so the social media conglomerate could continue assaulting Pinterest’s niche of DIY hobbyists.

Beyond competition, Pinterest could also struggle to improve monetization in international markets, which would lead to disappointing financial results. Success is far from guaranteed, and growing international ad sales will require localization while adapting to a diverse set of market conditions.

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